Thursday 18th September | Join Free
Hello and welcome to your Thursday Beyond the Basket brief. In today’s issue, Holiday sales are set to slow to their weakest growth in years, while Amazon just handed sellers an AI assistant that could actually do the work for them. Gen Z is about hanging around and wants answers in 15 minutes or they're gone, Pinterest says curation beats discounts, and Next is warning of "anaemic" UK growth despite profit jumps. Let's get into it. 👇
In today’s beyond the basket:
🎄 Holiday sales growth predicted to slow to 4%
🤖 Amazon rolls out agentic AI for sellers
📱 Report: Gen Z sets new retail standards
📌 Pinterest: Curation drives confident purchases
🔻 Next shares drop on UK growth warning
+plus four longer reads to help you stay one step head of the rest.
🎄Holiday sales growth predicted to slow to 4% LINK
TL;DR: Bain & Company projects U.S. holiday sales to rise 4% YoY to $975B, below the 10-year average of 5.2%. In-store sales will grow 2.75%, while ecommerce growth is projected to slow to 7% down from the 9–10% pace of recent years.
Why It Matters: The holiday season outlook appears to be mixed, consumers face financial pressure (82% plan to cut back on essentials), credit delinquencies are at their highest since 2011, and Gen Z spending is expected to fall nearly 25%. Yet shoppers will still show up: Bain forecasts 10% more participation in Black Friday/Cyber Monday, with value and deal-hunting driving behavior.
Your Move: Rework holiday campaigns around value and urgency, lean into discounts, bundle offers, and AI-driven price comparison tools to capture cautious, budget conscious spenders.
🤖 Amazon rolls out agentic AI for sellers LINK
TL;DR: Amazon upgraded its Seller Assistant into a full agentic AI that manages inventory, compliance, and advertising, plus a new Creative Studio that cuts ad development from weeks to hours.
Why It Matters: This marks a shift from AI as a support tool to AI as an active operator inside marketplaces. Sellers can now get real-time inventory alerts, compliance monitoring, and ad campaigns generated with Amazon’s shopping signals. Crucially, Amazon isn’t alone: Etsy also rolled out new AI tools for its sellers this week, pointing to a wider push by marketplaces to make AI a core offering for merchants. The competitive bar for seller tools is being raised fast.
Your Move: Test Creative Studio now, use it to spin up Sponsored Video or Display campaigns for Q4 and free up your team’s time for strategy, not admin.
Wider context:
Etsy adds AI-powered writing and search tools for sellers - Etsy’s latest tools help sellers with AI-assisted titles, writing, search, insights, and compliance dashboards ahead of the holiday season. Read More >
📱 Report: Gen Z sets new retail standards LINK
TL;DR: A new study from eDesk finds Gen Z shoppers (ages ~18–27) expect instant customer service (the “15-Minute Rule”), seamless mobile-first communication, and social commerce checkout, reshaping how retailers must serve them.
Why It Matters: Gen Z isn’t just impatient; they’re setting the new baseline for retail CX. WhatsApp dominates as a service channel, while Instagram and TikTok double as shopping hubs, with Gen Z 3x more likely than others to buy directly in-app. Nearly 1 in 3 support queries occur just before checkout, tied to unclear shipping, sizing, or stock info, showing how poor transparency drives cart abandonment.
Your Move: Audit your customer journey for Gen Z friction points: add AI-powered chat for real-time support, tighten shipping/returns clarity, and test social checkout integrations.
📌 Pinterest: Curation drives confident purchases LINK
TL;DR: A new Pinterest report, Choices, choices: The real problem behind abandoned baskets, argues that decision paralysis, not checkout friction, is the main reason 70% of carts are abandoned. The solution? Curation.
Why It Matters: The report suggests that shoppers face 35,000 decisions daily, and 7 in 10 Gen Z say they feel overwhelmed by too many product options. Pinterest’s research shows curation builds confidence: 75% of shoppers say refining options helps them decide, while 60% (68% of Gen Z) say curation prevents FOBO (fear of better options). Pinterest claims products saved on its platform are 2x more likely to be purchased, and users are 59% more likely to buy compared to other social platforms.
Your Move: Upload your catalog, refresh creative with curated lifestyle imagery, and use Pinterest Performance+campaigns to boost reach. Then go further: reduce overload by offering curated capsule collections, shared via email, blog, or Pinterest boards, so abandoned carts become a chance to guide shoppers with confidence, not just discount reminders.
🔻 Next shares drop on UK growth warning LINK
TL;DR: Next shares slid despite a 13.8% profit rise, as the retailer warned of “anaemic” UK growth driven by AI, automation, rising employment costs, and new regulation.
Why It Matters: Despite strong first-half trading, helped by warm weather and the M&S cyber attack, Next struck a cautious tone. Wolfson flagged “triple pressure” on entry-level jobs (costs, regulation, automation) and warned that higher taxes and spending commitments could erode competitiveness. The brand’s purchase of Seraphine’s IP after administration also underscores the volatility facing niche retailers as bigger players pick up distressed assets.
Your Move: Stress-test your Q4 plan by running downside scenarios: model for 5–10% lower sales, rising fulfilment costs, and weaker Black Friday volumes. Build in contingency promotions, tighten working capital, and watch the upcoming November Budget for policy and tax changes that could shift consumer demand.
📚 The Reading List
Curated deep dives, longer reads and analysis shaping the future of retail and ecommerce.
Mental Health: Reaching Today’s Youth
RetailWire (5 Min Read) Read Here >
Industry experts debate how retailers and brands can better support youth mental health through products, campaigns, and messaging.
How Media Companies Are Escaping the Digital Ad-Tech Maze
Digiday (7 Min Read) Read Here >
A look at how publishers are reworking ad strategies to deliver seamless cross-platform campaigns.
How Working With Rivals Can Unlock Bigger Opportunities
Entrepreneur (6 Min Read) Read Here >
Why partnering with competitors can open new growth avenues and expand market reach.
Are You Building a Business or Just Feeding Your Ego?
Inc. (4 Min Read) Read Here >
A sharp reflection on whether founders are creating sustainable businesses, or chasing validation.
Please consider sharing with a colleague who might find this helpful.
Not subscribed to Beyond the Basket yet?
Subscribe for free