Beyond the Basket - 16/09/25

Tuesday 16th September | Join Free

Hello and welcome to your Tuesday Beyond the Basket brief. Americans are spending at their slowest pace since 2021, but somehow still splurging on big-ticket items. TikTok dodged another ban with a last-minute deal, Apple's doubling down on buy-now-pay-later, and new data shows shoppers care more about free shipping than fast shipping. Oh, and Etsy just went full AI on its sellers. Let's dig in. 🪏

In today’s beyond the basket:
💸 U.S. Consumer Spending Growth Hits 4-Year Low
🚨 TikTok Ban Averted (for Now) With U.S., China Deal
📦 Ryder Study: Shoppers Value Savings Over Speed
📲 Apple Pay Taps Affirm + Klarna for In-Store BNPL
🤖 Etsy Rolls Out AI Tools for Sellers

+plus one podcast and three deeper reads to help you stay in the loop.

TL;DR: U.S. household spending rose just 4.1% YoY in August, the slowest pace since 2021, even as big-ticket purchases spiked.

Why It Matters: Consumers pulled forward spending into summer, especially on electronics, vehicles, and home goods. That sets up potential softer demand heading into Q4. Low-income U.S. households drove much of the increase in large purchases but remain the most financially fragile, with 74% reporting unstable income. For ecommerce, this points to a holiday season shaped by deal-seeking and cautious carts rather than broad-based splurging.

Your Move: Invest in loyalty programs, retention campaigns, and repeat purchase drivers, a stable and loyal customer base can help cushion slower spending cycles.

TL;DR: The Trump administration says it has reached a “framework” deal with China to keep TikTok running in the U.S., averting another ban.

Why It Matters: For ecommerce brands, this isn’t just about social media, it’s about TikTok Shop, one of the fastest-growing discovery-to-purchase channels. A shutdown would have cut off access to millions of U.S. shoppers, especially Gen Z, who increasingly browse and buy directly on the app. The reprieve means TikTok Shop remains open for now, but ongoing regulatory uncertainty makes it risky to over-index on the platform.

Your Move: Keep TikTok in your acquisition mix, but diversify traffic + sales channels so a future ban or restriction doesn’t derail growth.

Wider Context: Big Brands Test TikTok Shop’s Livestream Push - Pacsun, Crocs, and Glossier are driving sales through TikTok Shop, but U.S. shoppers still prefer short videos over livestreams. Read More >

TL;DR: Ryder’s 2025 consumer survey found 94% of U.S. shoppers prioritize free shipping, discounts, and free returns, while demand for “fast” shipping fell to just 15%.

Why It Matters: Inflation-conscious consumers are comparison shopping more and favoring flexible fulfillment, like scheduled delivery and in-store pickup, over rapid shipping. This shift means cost savings + convenience now outweigh pure speed. Omnichannel integration is critical: for the 2025 holidays, 74% plan to shop in-store, 73% on marketplaces, and 70% on brand sites.

Your Move: Highlight free shipping, flexible returns, and fulfillment options in your Q4 campaigns, shoppers are signaling these perks drive conversion more than speed.

Wider Context:
Walmart Pushes Ultrafast Delivery - Walmart continues to push for faster delivery, reporting its fastest this year was under 5 minutes. One in 15 ship-from-store orders arrived in under 30 minutes, and ultrafast shoppers spent 2–3x more with basket sizes 13% larger. Read More >

Q4 Peaks Flatten in Europe - byrd’s 6-year data shows Black Friday/Cyber Monday’s share of Q4 orders dropped 23% as retailers stretch promos to smooth fulfillment. Read More >

TL;DR: Apple Pay users in the U.S. and UK can now use Affirm and Klarna’s pay-later options in-store, expanding beyond online and app checkout.

Why It Matters: Apple is shuttering its own Pay Later service and leaning on BNPL specialists instead. That means in-store shoppers can split payments directly via Apple Pay, with Klarna and Affirm offering a full suite of installment options. For ecommerce and omnichannel brands, this is another step toward BNPL becoming a default expectation at checkout. It also highlights how wallet providers (Apple, Google) are becoming gatekeepers of payment choice, potentially forcing brands and retailers to keep pace.

Your Move: If you sell omnichannel, promote BNPL availability across all touchpoints, online, app, and now in-store, to capture budget-conscious shoppers.

TL;DR: Etsy added AI-powered writing assistants, title suggestions, and search tools ahead of the holiday season, alongside new seller dashboards and insights.

Why It Matters: This marks another step in mainstream AI adoption across ecommerce. Platforms are increasingly embedding AI not just for buyers, but to automate seller workflows, from copywriting to trend insights. With over 130M unique items, Etsy’s challenge is surfacing the right products fast, and AI-driven listing + discovery is now central to that mission. For sellers, this means AI is fast becoming, no longer optional, but potentially the baseline infrastructure of ecommerce.

Your Move: Audit your workflows, are there ways to start layering AI-driven copy, search, and trend tools into operations now? The risk; falling behind competitors already scaling with them.

Curated deep dives, longer reads and analysis shaping the future of retail and ecommerce.

Can AI Deliver Empathy in Customer Experience?
Retail Gazette (43 min listen) Listen Here >
A podcast unpacking how brands are testing AI to replicate human empathy in service and shopping journeys.

Holiday Sentiment Slumps - But Don’t Be Fooled
DigiDay (6 min read) Read Here >
Why weak consumer sentiment surveys may mislead marketers, and what spending data suggests instead.

The $10,000 Keyboard Market
Inc.com (7 min read) Read Here >
Inside the rise of ultra-bespoke computer keyboards, and what it signals about luxury niche demand.

Cookieless Collaboration Lifts Conversions 41%
The Drum (5 min read) Read Here >
How brands are pooling first-party data to boost targeting accuracy without third-party cookies.