Friday 12th September | Join Free
Hello and welcome to your Friday Beyond the Basket brief. Holiday spending is kicking off weeks ahead of schedule as tariffs and inflation weigh heavy, global ad spend is set to double by 2034 but the compliance hurdles keep stacking, Ocado’s warehouse pitch faces its toughest test yet, and RH shows us just how much tariffs can rattle a launch calendar. Let’s dive in 👇
In today’s beyond the basket:
🛍️ Holiday Shopping Kicks Off Early Amid Inflation & Tariffs
📈 Digital Ad Spend Seen Hitting $1.48T by 2034
🌼 Laura Ashley Returns to the High Street
🚛 Ocado Shares Sink as Kroger Reconsiders Warehouses
🚨 RH Misses Earnings as Tariffs Bite Deeper
+plus three deep reads to take you into the weekend.
🛍️ Holiday Shopping Kicks Off Early Amid Inflation & Tariffs LINK
TL;DR: According to CNBC, consumers are starting holiday shopping earlier than ever as inflation and tariff uncertainty raise concerns about higher gift prices. Deloitte forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales to reach $1.61–$1.62T, up 3% YoY, with ecommerce growing 7–9%.
Why It Matters: Shoppers are price-sensitive, 41% worry gifts will cost more, and 30% plan to spend less than last year. Nearly half of consumers have already begun shopping, pulling demand forward into Q3. Retailers are offsetting tariff risks by ordering early and leaning on discounts to trigger spending.
Your Move: Expect deal-conscious, front-loaded demand, plan promos earlier in October and keep inventory nimble to capture both the early-bird and last-minute shopper waves.
📈 Digital Ad Spend Seen Hitting $1.48T by 2034 LINK
TL;DR: Precedence Research projects global digital ad spend to grow from $650B (2025) to $1.483T (2034) at ~9.47% CAGR, led by video, mobile, and ecommerce.
Why It Matters: Retail remains the top spending vertical and North America holds the largest share, but the fastest growth shifts to APAC, implications for channel mix, creative formats, and cross-border measurement. Meanwhile, the EU’s new political-ad transparency rules and the U.S. FDA’s stepped-up DTC enforcement raise the compliance bar for performance marketers running regulated or issue-adjacent campaigns.
Your Move: Rebalance 2026 planning toward video + retail media while you tighten first-party data and compliance workflows (labeling, targeting, claims). Build a creative-testing cadence for short-form/CTV and add a pre-flight legal check for EU political-adjacent segments and U.S. health claims.
🌼 Laura Ashley Returns to the High Street LINK
TL;DR: Laura Ashley is opening its first physical store in five years, a 10,000 sq ft flagship at Lakeside, Essex, launching September 26 in partnership with Next.
Why It Matters: Once left for dead in 2020 administration, Laura Ashley’s revival under Marquee Brands shows how legacy and digital-first brands alike are turning back to physical retail as a growth lever. Stores are no longer just sales points, they’re brand theatres, designed to drive inspiration, loyalty, and omni-channel sales. Expect more digitally driven labels to explore “destination” flagships that double as experience hubs.
Your Move: If you’re online-only, reassess whether a selective physical presence, ideally through partnerships with established retailers, could unlock visibility, trust, and higher-ticket purchases.
🚛 Ocado Shares Sink as Kroger Reconsiders Warehouses LINK
TL;DR: Ocado’s stock dropped 13% after Kroger revealed a review of its automated fulfillment centers, built in partnership with the UK tech grocer.
Why It Matters: Kroger is Ocado’s largest and most strategic partner in the U.S. and a pullback would undermine Ocado’s global pitch that automation is the future of grocery logistics. With shares already down 18% over the past year, investor confidence is shaky. The bigger signal: U.S. grocers may be rethinking whether high-capex automation delivers the promised ROI.
Your Move: Audit your vendor and partner dependencies, a single-point reliance (like Ocado with Kroger) can quickly turn into a strategic vulnerability.
🚨 RH Misses Earnings as Tariffs Bite Deeper LINK
TL;DR: RH took a $30M tariff hit in Q2, missing Wall Street revenue estimates ($899M vs. $905M) and lowering its full-year outlook. CEO Gary Friedman warned that Trump’s new investigation into furniture import tariffs could add further pressure.
Why It Matters: Tariffs are no longer a background risk, they’re actively reshaping product pricing, sourcing timelines, and inventory flows. RH delayed its Fall Interiors Sourcebook by two months to finalize pricing amid tariff uncertainty. For ecommerce operators, this highlights how policy volatility can disrupt assortment launches, marketing calendars, and customer price expectations.
Your Move: Run tariff scenarios (+5%, +10%, +20%) in your P&L, secure backup suppliers outside high-risk zones, and pre-build flexible pricing/marketing levers so you can adjust fast without stalling launches.
📚 The Reading List
Curated deep dives, longer reads and analysis shaping the future of retail and ecommerce.
36 Ways to Revive an Ecommerce Business
Practical Ecommerce (6 min read) Read Here ›
Actionable tactics for operators facing stalled growth, from conversion fixes to retention plays.
How a Simple Shape Made Coca-Cola’s Logo Timeless
Inc. (3 min read) Read Here ›
Branding deep dive: why subtle design choices can build generational staying power.
What U.S. Retailers Can Learn from China’s Social Commerce Success
Retail TouchPoints (5 min read) Read Here ›
Perspective on community-driven selling and how U.S. brands can adapt lessons locally.
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