Beyond the Basket - 04/09/25

Thursday 4th September | Join Free

It’s Thursday, and today’s stories show how retailers are navigating very different kinds of pressure. American Eagle’s viral campaign lifts sales and stock, eBay doubles down on trust in resale, and Meta leans on AI to fix attribution gaps. Dollar Tree is winning on value, while Macy’s shows signs of life but can’t escape tariff pressure. The big question today: can retailers turn short-term spikes into lasting growth? Let’s jump in 👇

In today’s beyond the basket:
👖 American Eagle’s Viral Surge Lifts Stock - But Can It Last?
🧥 eBay Extends Authentication to Apparel
📊 Meta Expands Incremental Attribution
💸 Dollar Tree Rises as Shoppers Trade Down
🛍️ Macy’s Sees Growth, but Tariffs Loom Large

+plus five deep reads and a tool that could transform how you sell digital products or subscriptions.

TL;DR: American Eagle’s controversial Sydney Sweeney ad drove sold-out denim, soaring traffic, record new customer acquisition, and a 20% share price jump in after-hours trading. Quarterly revenue hit $1.28B, above expectations but still down 1% YoY.

Why It Matters: The campaign shows how “all press is good press” can sometimes hold true in retail. American Eagle sidestepped criticism, doubled down on momentum, and rode cultural crossovers like the Travis Kelce–Taylor Swift moment to generate 40B claimed impressions and a short-term stock boost. But impressions and market spikes don’t guarantee long-term growth, the real test is whether viral buzz translates into repeat buyers and lasting revenue.

Your Move: Viral moments fade fast. Use the spotlight to capture emails, drive app installs, and build community touchpoints that turn one-time buyers into loyal customers. The real win isn’t just impressions or a stock pop, it’s creating a pipeline for loyalty and lifetime value.

TL;DR: eBay has expanded its Authenticity Guarantee in the UK to include apparel, shoes, and accessories, creating a “head-to-toe” authentication service for pre-loved fashion.

Why It Matters: Trust is the biggest barrier in resale, and eBay is tackling it head-on. With 40% of GMV now from secondhand goods and “vintage” searches topping 1,000 per minute, authentication isn’t just a feature, it’s a growth lever. By widening its coverage, eBay is positioning pre-loved as a mainstream first choice rather than a niche alternative. This also pressures competitors like Vinted and Depop to match credibility standards.

Your Move: If you sell resale or refurbished goods, consider highlighting trust signals up front, verified listings, quality checks, guarantees, to convert cautious shoppers into confident buyers.

TL;DR: Meta updated its incremental attribution tracking, using AI to predict whether a conversion was truly driven by an ad, beyond the standard 1–7 day click or view window.

Why It Matters: For ecommerce and retail marketers, increasingly attribution gaps = wasted spend. Meta’s new model aims to credit “influence conversions” more accurately, reflecting the real multi-touch nature of modern shopping journeys. While Meta predictably keeps the tech vague, it’s part of a broader trend: AI-driven attribution is replacing rules-based tracking as cookies disappear and consumer journeys splinter.

Your Move: Test Meta’s incremental attribution alongside standard tracking to spot which ads actually drive new conversions. Use those insights to refine your creative mix, rebalance your channel spend, and get ahead of the shift toward AI-driven attribution models which will likely soon replace cookie-era tracking.

Wider Context: AI attribution solves multi-touch blind spots – As customer journeys splinter across devices and platforms, AI-powered attribution is replacing last-click models. Brands using it report 15–30% ROI gains by reallocating spend to ads that drive true incremental conversions. Read More ›

TL;DR: Dollar Tree’s Q2 sales climbed 12.3% to $4.6B, with comps up 6.5%, fueled by middle- and high-income shoppers hunting for value. Tariff mitigation efforts kicked in earlier than expected, softening cost pressures, while the sale of Family Dollar allows the retailer to fully refocus on its core brand.

Why It Matters: Dollar Tree is emerging as a rare retail “downshift winner.” Two-thirds of its new customers earn $100K+, showing how fragile the middle class has become. With 85% of products still at $2 or less, the chain attracts both budget-conscious essentials buyers and affluent “treasure hunters.” By shedding Family Dollar, it gains capital and focus to expand multi-price formats and seasonal assortments, a model well-suited to today’s paycheck-to-paycheck reality.

Your Move: Reframe affordability as smart consumption, not compromise — give shoppers tiered price options or value bundles that let them trade down without leaving your brand. Layer in seasonal drops and surprise finds to tap the “treasure hunt” mindset, while using small, phased price adjustments to stay ahead of tariffs and protect margins.

TL;DR: Macy’s posted its first sales growth in 12 quarters, with comps up nearly 2% thanks to staffing boosts, revamped merchandising, and stronger private label performance. But tariffs are set to trim margins by 40–60 bps in the second half of the year.

Why It Matters: CEO Tony Spring’s back-to-basics turnaround, more staff, better storytelling, localized assortments, is paying off. Customers are responding, and satisfaction scores are rising. But tariffs remain a structural threat: even well-executed fundamentals can be undermined by external cost shocks. This underscores the tension between operational reinvention and macro headwinds.

Your Move: Keep focusing on the basics, good service, clear storytelling, and products people can’t get elsewhere, while making sure you have room to adjust prices if tariffs or costs rise again.

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