Beyond the Basket - 03/09/25

Wednesday 3rd September | Join Free

It’s Wednesday, and as lawsuits, regulations, and consumer caution collide, Amazon faces a class action covering 288M shoppers, the EU is stalling a Google AdTech fine, and PwC says holiday spending will fall for the first time since 2020. Is retail heading into its toughest Q4 in years? Let jump into it 👇

In today’s beyond the basket:
⚖️ Amazon Faces Massive Class Action
🔎 Google Sidesteps Major Penalties - For Now
🎁 Holiday Spending to Fall 5%, Gen Z Tightens Belts
🤖 Alibaba Merges Platforms, Bets on AI
💸 Claire’s Cuts Closures After Buyout Offer

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TL;DR: A federal judge certified a nationwide class of 288M U.S. consumers accusing Amazon of inflating prices on third-party sales.

Why It Matters: This is one of the largest consumer class actions ever in the U.S., covering billions of transactions since 2017. At stake is whether Amazon’s policies illegally restricted sellers from offering lower prices elsewhere — effectively raising costs for shoppers. If successful, the case could reshape Amazon’s marketplace rules and open the door to new legal and regulatory scrutiny.

Your Move: Audit your pricing strategy now, diversify into channels like Walmart or TikTok Shop, and scenario-plan for margin shifts if Amazon adjusts fees or policies, while also sharpening your customer messaging in case competitors lean into a “fairer pricing” narrative.

TL;DR: The EU shelved its multibillion-dollar AdTech fine under U.S. pressure, while a U.S. court ruling spared Google a forced breakup of Chrome or Android. Remedies instead focus on auction transparency, limited data sharing, and fewer exclusivity deals, changes critics say don’t alter Google’s dominance.

Why It Matters: Retailers remain tethered to Google’s ad stack, which underpins customer acquisition. While structural breakups are off the table, regulators are forcing behavioral changes that could alter targeting, auction dynamics, and ad costs. Industry voices call the outcome “a rip,” warning that Google still sets the rules. Alphabet’s stock surge underscores how lightly it was hit, while rivals and advertisers brace for limited relief.

Your Move: Assume incremental, not transformational, change in Google’s ad power. Start hedging exposure: diversify into retail media and the likes of TikTok, build first-party data through loyalty programs and email capture, and monitor transparency shifts that may surface new inefficiencies or opportunities in auctions.

TL;DR: PwC’s 2025 holiday outlook shows U.S. shoppers plan to cut holiday spending by 5%, with Gen Z slashing budgets by 23%, the sharpest pullback of any generation.

Why It Matters: This is the first expected holiday decline since 2020, signaling consumer caution amid tariffs, economic uncertainty, and shifting priorities. Gen Z is the swing factor: they’re driving mall traffic but not converting, laser-focused on price transparency, uniqueness, and speed from social to shelf. While millennials will still spend the most ($2,190 on average), Gen Z’s frugality pressures retailers to rethink both value messaging and experiential retail. Gift cards, food, and affordable “consumables” are emerging as resilient categories.

Your Move: With holiday wallets shrinking, convert Gen Z traffic into sales with value-led promotions, exclusive drops, and in-store experiences. Prioritize resilient categories like food, consumables, and gift cards, strengthen omnichannel execution as online and in-store reach parity, and test AI-driven gifting tools. Segment messaging: value + uniqueness for Gen Z, premium experiences for millennials.

TL;DR: Alibaba is consolidating Taobao, Tmall, Ele.me, and Fliggy into a single ecommerce group while accelerating AI deployment across logistics and personalization.

Why It Matters: Alibaba is streamlining its ecosystem of 800M+ active users into one unified platform, giving it tighter control of supply chains, loyalty programs, and customer data. At the same time, AI-driven products are fueling triple-digit growth for the eighth straight quarter. For retailers and marketers, this is a blueprint: consolidation reduces friction for shoppers, while AI enhances efficiency and engagement. Even with modest revenue growth (+2%), profits jumped 76% as Alibaba leaned on investment gains and tech-driven efficiency.

Your Move: Audit where you can simplify fragmented customer touch-points and explore AI tools for personalization and fulfillment, expectations are shifting, and Alibaba could be showing how scale plus AI can lock in loyalty.

TL;DR: Claire’s will now close 291 stores instead of 700 after private equity firm Ames Watson made a $140M acquisition bid.

Why It Matters: This marks a sharp reversal from potential liquidation of its 1,500-store fleet. The deal signals investor belief in Claire’s brand equity despite tariffs, debt, and rising competition from cheaper accessory retailers and alt piercing providers. If approved, Ames Watson may pivot Claire’s toward a leaner, more sustainable footprint. For mall operators, this is a lifeline, avoiding another major retail vacancy wave.

Your Move: Expect a tighter Claire’s footprint but with private equity discipline behind it. Competitors should watch for pricing resets, experiential in-store upgrades, and ecomm acceleration as Ames Watson looks to maximize return. If you sell in accessories or Gen Z retail, pressure-test your value proposition now.

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